by Darren Janz
Due to a recent redesign of our website and update of our blog's format, posts from December 2016 and before are no longer available in their original formatting. I will be working over the course of the next few days to reupload everything as soon as possible. Archived predictions are also temporarily unavailable; they should be back in the near future as well. Starting in January, Political Resource will begin to see a host of new contributors join the political fray, so stay tuned for what will likely be much more frequent and interesting updates beginning early next year. Thanks!
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by Darren Janz Well, tomorrow marks the one-month anniversary of Election Night 2016, and we've figured that now is as good a time as any for one final runthrough of the election results now that (almost) every ballot has been counted. For President: Donald Trump (R-NY) - 306 Electoral Votes; 46.0% Popular Vote Hillary Clinton (D-NY) - 232 Electoral Votes; 48.1% Popular Vote Gary Johnson (L-NM) - 0 Electoral Votes; 3.3% Popular Vote Jill Stein (G-MA) - 0 Electoral Votes; 1.1% Popular Vote Evan McMullin (I-UT) - 0 Electoral Votes; 0.5% Popular Vote Other - 0 Electoral Votes; 1.0% Popular Vote Not since 1948 ("Dewey Defeats Truman") has something close to this happened. An irrefutable frontrunner - a candidate so overwhelmingly considered by the public, the media, and the polling industry to be inevitable for election that any suggestion otherwise was to be ridiculed - has been defeated by an undeniable underdog, someone whose victory was considered so unlikely that even a suggestion of its possibility was untolerated. Despite winning the popular vote by more than 2% and almost 3 million votes, Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump by a significant margin in the Electoral College, losing states that hadn't been lost by the Democrats since the eighties and that almost no mainstream political commentators considered to be overtly competitive by election day. Trump's victory was fueled almost in full by the plight of the white working-class voter - a map showing the relative shift of each county's vote compared to 2012 shows that rural, white areas swung en masse towards Trump, while cities and minority-dominated areas moved largely towards Clinton. From Elliott County, Kentucky, which had voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every single election since it was created in 1869, to the Driftless Area in the Upper Midwest, which up until now has been the most notable home of the white rural Democrat, Trump's domination of the apparently revitalized Silent Majority was nothing but a clean sweep. In Iowa, a state that had voted for a Republican only once since 1984, Trump's effect on the rural working class was especially evident - every county in the state with less than 50,000 voters supported Trump, while every county in the state with over 50,000 voters went for Clinton. While the election itself was the best performance for a Republican since 1988, electoral trends could paint quite a different picture when it comes to implications for the future. Trump's gains in the rural Northwest, Midwest, and Northeast were countered by Clinton's successes in the Sun Belt, where her overperformances of Obama's margins in sizeable states like Arizona, California, Georgia, and Texas could suggest a bright spot for the Democrats in the future. Many of the areas that trended towards Clinton are expected to gain population much faster than those that moved towards Trump, and demographic shifts in the Southwest, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic - as well as in growing cities and their suburbs - could suggest that Democrats will soon begin to score key victories in areas that were once banes to their electoral success. There is perhaps no better an example of this than in Orange County, California, a former Republican bastion that up until this year hadn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1936. The county, which boasts a population of over 3 million and this year voted for Clinton by almost ten points, is a perfect representation of Democrats' potential gains in quickly-growing areas where demographic changes could determine everything. Of course, as with everything in politics, circumstances change, and all we can be sure of for now is that the 2016 presidential election was a massive victory for Trump and all he represents, whether for the better or the worse. For Governor: Republicans - 33 States (+2) Democrats - 16 States (-2) Independents - 1 State (no net change) As with the presidential election, gubernatorial contests this cycle were mostly good news for Republicans. Despite the razor-thin victory of Democratic challenger Roy Cooper over Republican Governor Pat McCrory in the state of North Carolina (which represented the first time in Tar Heel history an incumbent governor had been defeated for reelection), Republicans nearly swept the board in competitive races, easily holding onto the Governor's Mansion in Indiana and making three key gains in Missouri, New Hampshire, and Vermont (which elected Republican Phil Scott despite giving Trump less than one-third of the state's vote). Besides North Carolina, there were two other bright spots for Democrats on Election Night, with Democratic Governor Steve Bullock of Montana comfortably securing reelection and businessman Jim Justice of West Virginia holding the state for Democrats on a gubernatorial scale despite Trump's massive victory. For Senate: Republicans - 52 Seats (-2) Democrats - 48 Seats (+2) In the end, Republicans avoided the possibility of a tied Senate by winning the upper chamber of Congress outright, allowing Democrats to pick up only two seats nationwide as the GOP won almost all competitive races. Despite losses in Illinois (where Democratic challenger Tammy Duckworth defeated Republican Senator Mark Kirk) and New Hampshire (where Democratic challenger Maggie Hassan defeated Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte), Republicans held onto every other one of their seats that was considered to be at risk. Perhaps the most surprising example of this was in Wisconsin, where Senator Ron Johnson - considered one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the nation - won reelection in a surprise victory over former Senator Russ Feingold, who was considered by almost all political pundits to win in a thought to be guaranteed pickup for the Democrats. Despite Republican victories in key states like Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Democrats did hold two key seats in Colorado and Nevada, the latter of which was considered especially competitive and by some even a likely pickup for Republicans. For House: Republicans - 241 Seats (-6) Democrats - 194 Seats (+6) Overall, Democrats gained nine seats held by Republicans and lost three of their own, resulting in a net change of +6 - not nearly enough to retake the chamber from the GOP. Almost half of the pickups on both sides of the aisle occurred in Florida, where redistricting allowed Democrats to take three seats from Republicans and allowed Republicans to in turn steal two from the Democrats. Outside of the Sunshine State, Democrats scored victories in Illinois, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Virginia, and especially Nevada, where Democratic candidates picked up two seats formerly held by Republicans and now control 3/4 of the state's congressional delegation. Meanwhile, the only Republican pickup outside of Florida was in Nebraska, where vulnerable incumbent Brad Ashford was defeated by Republican Don Bacon in a district generally favorable to the GOP. Overall, the Democrats' underperformance in House elections is likely due to a bad night for Democrats nationwide, with Trump possibly even saving some vulnerable Republican incumbents with his own unexpected coattails. All things considered, the 2016 elections were mostly favorable for the GOP, though did imply the existence of some underlying geopolitical trends that could be useful for the Democrats in the near future. Regardless of your personal political tendencies, there is one thing we can all agree on - the 2016 election was certainly one to be remembered.
by Darren Janz It's November 2nd, and only one week now remains until America will go to the polls in what could very well be one of the most influential elections in our nation's history. Before Election Day arrives, we've decided to go through and look at one final review of our predictions for how we think things will turn out next Tuesday. For President: Hillary Clinton (D-NY) - 359 Electoral Votes; 28 States + DC + NE-02 Donald Trump (R-NY) - 173 Electoral Votes; 21 States Evan McMullin (I-UT) - 6 Electoral Votes; 1 State As of November 2, Hillary Clinton remains ahead of Donald Trump in most national polling by about 5%, an increase of around one percentage point from Obama's nationwide margin of victory in 2012. Clinton's lead in the polls, along with favorable early voting signs and a significant ground game advantage over the Trump campaign, should be just enough for her to carry North Carolina, Arizona, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District along with each of the states Obama carried four years ago. Meanwhile, polls suggest that Independent candidate Evan McMullin is continuing to increase his chances of a potential upset in the state of Utah, where Trump's rhetoric and campaign style have not been popular with a significant portion of the Mormon population. While most still consider McMullin to be an underdog, his intense GOTV efforts in Utah throughout the final weeks of the campaign may very well pay off. While Trump could overperform on Election Day and expand upon the twenty-four states won by Mitt Romney in 2012 - especially in Midwestern states like Ohio and Iowa - it does appear that Clinton has a substantial advantage leading into the final stretch of the campaign. For Governor: Republicans - 31 States (no net change) Democrats - 18 States (no net change) Independents - 1 State (no net change) Throughout the course of the 2016 campaign, Political Resource has identified seven gubernatorial races throughout the United States as strongly competitive, with battles for the Governor's Mansions in Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Vermont, and West Virginia raging on as Election Day approaches. As of right now, it appears Democrats have slight advantages in the states of Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, and West Virginia, each of which voted for Mitt Romney four years ago but have seen their Democratic gubernatorial candidates run strong campaigns throughout the past year. Meanwhile, the GOP appears to be on track to pick up governorships in the states of New Hampshire and Vermont, both of which are currently being barnstormed by strong Republican candidates despite both voting for Barack Obama in 2012. The only other race that appears to be competitive - in Indiana - is unique in that there doesn't seem to be any sort of detectable advantage for either Republican nominee Eric Holcomb or Democratic nominee John Gregg, though we here at Political Resource are predicting it will end up going for Gregg by a coin flip. For Senate: Democrats - 50 Seats (+4) Republicans - 50 Seats (-4) The final predictions are in, and it appears we have a tie. Out of the twelve Senate seats in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin currently identified as competitive by Political Resource, exactly six appear to at least slightly favor each party, leaving both Democrats and Republicans with exactly fifty seats if everything goes as expected. Democrats seem favored to hold onto their seats in Colorado and Nevada and pick up four more in Illinois, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, giving them just enough to boost their current forty-six Senate seats to an even fifty. Meanwhile, Republicans - who have largely been on the defense this cycle - seem to hold at least slight advantages in the states of Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio, which should give them exactly fifty as well. A tie in the Senate means that the Vice President has power over who wins and who loses, meaning that the results of the presidential race (currently favored to be won by Hillary Clinton) could be the deciding factor over which party controls the Senate in the 115th United States Congress. For House: Republicans - 234 Seats (-13) Democrats - 201 Seats (+13) While Democrats appear favored to make substantial gains in the United States House of Representatives come November 8, the probability of regaining an absolute majority in the chamber remains highly unlikely. According to our final predictions, Democrats are poised to pick up fourteen seats in the House and lose one to the GOP, resulting in a net change of +13 - not nearly enough to reach the 218 seats necessary to take control. Ironically, if our predictions hold true, the partisan balance in the House for the 115th Congress will be 234-201, exactly what it was before the midterm elections in 2014. As always in politics, the unexpected can become the expected faster than can possibly be comprehended, so some of our predictions will be wrong and some of them will be right. The only thing that anyone can be sure of at this point is that November 8 will be a historic night in our nation's political history, and all we can do now is sit back and wait to see what happens. Should be fun.
by Darren Janz With less than three weeks remaining until Election Day arrives, both Trump and Clinton are working as possible to build up last-minute momentum in preparation for November 8. The third and final presidential debate of the general election season - to be held tonight at 9:00 PM EST in Las Vegas, Nevada - could prove to be vital to either candidate's chances of a final boost in the polls, though that's not to say the first part of October hasn't been crucial in determining who becomes the next President of the United States. Needless to say, the most prominent political happening since our last blog post on September 26 - and perhaps since the beginning of the 2016 presidential campaign early last year - was the Washington Post's release of a tape in which Donald Trump and television host Billy Bush were recorded having an "extremely lewd conversation about women" in 2005 while aboard a bus owned by Bush's Access Hollywood television program. The recorded conversation included Trump describing in full detail... well, just look and see for yourself (video obtained from The Daily Conversation): Why has the video caused so much controversy? No explanation needed.
The Access Hollywood controversy came only a few days after the first and only Vice Presidential debate of the 2016 election, with Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Tim Kaine and his Republican counterpart Mike Pence facing off in what would be their only opportunity to promote their respective running mates' candidacies on the debate stage. Though there were no explicitly controversial or particularly newsworthy moments in the debate, most polling suggests that Pence won by a small margin, with many news outlets accrediting his likeable style as opposed to Kaine's relative aggression as the main reason for his victory. The second presidential debate, which was held at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri on October 9, was rather spirited when compared to the Vice Presidential debate held days before, likely due to the news of the Access Hollywood controversy and its effect on both candidates' campaign strategies. While Hillary Clinton took advantage of the controversy and left no opportunity to attack Trump for his record on women unused, Trump repetitively referred to the recording of his lewd conversation as mere "locker-room talk," attempting to deflect attention from his own controversies and onto those of his Democratic rival as much as possible. The end of the debate, however, did have a light moment, with Donald Trump praising Hillary Clinton's work ethic and Clinton praising Trump's children after both were asked by a member of the audience to highlight a positive quality they saw in their opponent. All things considered, it appears most think the first half of the last month before Election Day was a net benefit for Clinton, with backlash against Trump from Republicans and Democrats alike following the release of the Access Hollywood tape allowing Clinton to turn away from her own controversies and put Trump on the defense once more. However, with the final presidential debate being held tonight and three full weeks remaining until America goes to vote on November 8, the seeming mantra of the 2016 election still holds true - anything can happen. by Darren Janz
Monday night has come and gone, and the first general election debate of the 2016 presidential election is now over. As always, of course, only one big question now remains - who won? The answer to that is... complicated. While online polls conducted the night of the debate by organizations like The Washington Times, CNBC, and the Drudge Report suggest that Trump was victorious by wide margins, the validity of those polls is disputed, especially considering they were not conducted in a scientific manner and online polls generally don't have that good of a track record when it comes to accuracy. In fact, scientific polls conducted since the debate by CNN/ORC, HuffPost/YouGov, and NBC News/SurveyMonkey suggest just the opposite of their online counterparts, with all three saying that Clinton won the first debate over Trump by a margin of about 30%. With political pundits and all sorts of pollsters divided over who proved to be the winner of Monday night's showdown, we've figured that providing a bit of insight on our own couldn't hurt. By far the most evident result of Monday night was Clinton's apparent ability to provoke Trump into losing his composure on the debate stage. Throughout the evening, Clinton constantly tried to prod Trump into foregoing his self-control, essentially baiting him into controversy as he tried to repel her allegations and attacks. The most notable example of this occurred when Clinton criticized Trump for failing to pay federal taxes, resulting in Trump saying that doing so "makes [him] smart" instead of refuting the allegations or changing the topic altogether. Clinton also baited Trump into denying claims he has made in the past, with Trump saying he "did not say" global warming is a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese despite having put the statement on his Twitter in late 2012. While Trump did appear to have succumbed to many of the attacks and provocations made by Clinton throughout the course of the debate, a number of of his policy-related arguments did seem to be quite successful with the audience. Over the course of the night, Trump hammered Clinton for her record on the economy and foreign trade, accusing her of supporting the Trans-Pacific Partnership and a number of other trade deals that he has attacked throughout the campaign as unfair to the American working class. Despite Clinton's denial of Trump's claims, his attacks on her record may prove to be successful in winning voters over, with even CNN's post-debate poll suggesting that the public is tightly split between the two candidates when it comes to the economy. Overall, the debate - as expected - contained good and bad moments for both candidates, with Clinton's provocations of Trump's composure and Trump's attacks on Clinton's record making for what very well could have been the most fiery debate in contemporary American political history. Ultimately, both candidates likely retained their base of supporters and gained few new followers, and we may just have to wait until the second contest on October 9th in order to determine who really will take the debates home. by Darren Janz Well, the month of July is over, and with it the 2016 Republican and Democratic National Conventions are now behind us. With the general election now in full speed as November inches closer and closer, let's look back at some of the most memorable moments of the conventions. First up, the Republicans: Unfortunately for Donald Trump, the RNC got off to a pretty rough start, to say the least, with the popularity of Melania Trump's initially well-received performance on the opening night of the convention going downhill fast as it became evident parts of her speech were plagiarized from that made by Michelle Obama in the 2008 Democratic National Convention. The following video highlights some of the most obvious examples of the copying, courtesy of CNN: Unsurprisingly, the increasingly gaffe-resistant Trump campaign was somehow able to shift attention away from controversy once again, using an amalgamation of shifting blame to campaign staffers and recalling similar plagiarism controversies revolving around Democrats in an attempt to deflect media attention from the snafu. I, personally, thought the most notable speech of the first night other than Melania's was that of Patricia Smith, the mother of Sean Smith, who was one of four Americans killed in the 2012 Benghazi attacks. Smith's passionate speech, which notably included the phrase, "I blame Hillary Clinton personally for the death of my son," was undoubtedly one of the most remarkable events of the four-day convention, and demonstrated once and for all that the Trump campaign isn't willing to let the American public forget about Clinton's past controversies. Other than the Melania's speech on the first night of the convention, the only other particularly contentious moment of the RNC was likely Ted Cruz's speech on Wednesday evening, in which he pleaded with voters to "vote their conscience" in the presidential race instead of explicitly endorsing Trump. Cruz's remarks - unexpected by most, including me - resulted in prominent backlash from a number of GOP figures, with Newt Gingrich, Chris Christie, Mike Pence, and (of course) Donald Trump denouncing the senator for refusing to support his party's nominee - a promise he made at the first GOP primary debate almost a year ago. The remarks made by Mike Pence and Donald Trump in their acceptance speeches were largely taken well by the public, with Pence - true to his title as a Vice Presidential nominee - leaving no room in his attacks against Hillary Clinton, and Trump largely sticking to policy as he seemingly attempted to shift the direction of his campaign in preparation for the upcoming general election season. Trump's speech ended the RNC on what undoubtedly seemed to be a good note for the GOP, with the days following the convention seeing a noticeable boost for the Trump campaign in general election polling. Of course, like almost everything in American politics, things aren't what they seem to be. For better or for worse - depending on your political perspective - there's no real doubt that the Democratic National Convention took a sizeable bite out of Trump's post-RNC polling boost, at least for the week following its conclusion. As of August 3, Clinton now leads by more than eight points nationally according to RCP, and her momentum doesn't appear to be faltering, at least for the time being. Let's look back the most interesting moments from the DNC: The first three nights of the DNC were largely uncontroversial, with keynote speeches from Michelle Obama, Bernie Sanders, Bill Clinton, Joe Biden, Tim Kaine, and Barack Obama receiving generally positive reviews but not leaving any particularly noticeable impressions. The first truly newsworthy moment of the convention came on the fourth night, when Khizr Khan - the father of a United States Army Captain who was killed in Iraq - made a speech strongly condemning Donald Trump's foreign policy and proposal to place a ban on Muslim immigration. Khan's speech, along with Trump's controversial rebuke in which he stated that he had "made a lot of sacrifices" as part of his business dealings, was likely the most remarkable moment of the convention and almost certainly aided Clinton's boost in the polls that began to manifest itself after the DNC's end. Personally, I was fortunate enough to travel to Philadelphia during the week of the DNC and see Khan's speech - along with those of Biden, Kaine, Obama, Clinton, and the rest of the Democratic convention medley - myself. Despite having to sit in literally the back row of the entire Wells Fargo Center (I could have sworn I would have fallen ten or so rows down if I had tripped while getting to my seat), the passion and excitement of the convention and its speakers amazed me. In my opinion, the most inspiring speech came from Reverend William Barber of North Carolina, whose remarks regarding religion and racism were particularly insightful. Here's a video of his full DNC speech, courtesy of C-SPAN: While at the DNC, I was also able to meet Governor Dannel Malloy of Connecticut, Senator Bob Menendez of New Jersey, and Representative John Lewis of Georgia, among others. Not to brag, of course. :P
Next month, we'll likely be taking a look at the first of the three presidential debates, which is set to take place on September 26. Thanks for reading! by Darren Janz
With less than one month remaining until the Republican National Convention kicks off in Cleveland, Donald Trump's search for a running mate is becoming more vital by the minute. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton's lead in general election polling is appearing to become more tenuous by the day, indicating that her Vice Presidential choice could be the difference between a win and a loss in November. Political Resource has identified five of the most likely contenders for Vice Presidential nomination on both the Republican and Democratic sides, along with each potential nominee's benefits and liabilities. First up, the Republicans: 1. Newt Gingrich - As a former speaker of the United States House of Representatives and loyal Trump surrogate, Gingrich is certain to bring both experience and passion to the Republican ticket if ultimately selected. His familiarity with Capitol Hill is a trait Donald Trump has actively looked for in potential Vice Presidential nominees, with Trump asserting that political experience will be mandatory for his administration's successful navigation of Congress. However, Gingrich's fiery persona may be unable to successfully balance that of Donald Trump on the Republican ticket, and his association with Congress may not necessarily only be a plus. 2. Chris Christie - Ever since abandaning his own presidential aspirations earlier this year, Christie has been a strong proponent of the Trump campaign, becoming the first former presidential candidate in the 2016 Republican field to endorse Trump in spite of vicious attacks that had been launched against him throughout the primary season. Christie's loyalty and political skill will likely come to the advantage of his hopes for the Vice Presidential spot, though his rock-bottom approval ratings in his home state of New Jersey and association with the Bridgegate scandal may prove to prevent him from winning the position in the end. 3. Jeff Sessions - In late February, Jeff Sessions became the first sitting member of the United States Senate to endorse Donald Trump's bid for the presidency, announcing his support even before his home state of Alabama voted on March 1. Sessions' early loyalty has undoubtedly helped him win Trump's favor, and although his relatively low national profile may stymie his chances of getting the VP nod, Sessions' lasting support for Trump's campaign and conservative reputation may end up resulting in his name being on the ballot in November. 4. Mike Pence - As the Governor of Indiana, Pence has - for better or for worse - gained a reputation as a staunch conservative, signing into law a bill that allows business owners to refuse service to LGBT customers despite a profuse national backlash from progressive and LGBT groups. Pence's experience as Governor, along with his many years as a former United States Congressman, will almost certainly come to his advantage in the fight for the Republican VP spot, though Trump may ultimately choose a less controversial figure for his ticket as part of a general election strategy. 5. Mary Fallin - Like Pence, Governor Fallin has gained a reputation for staunch conservatism throughout her time as Governor of Oklahoma, supporting legislation and policies that favor the expansion of drilling for oil and natural gas despite the protests of environmental groups. Fallin's experience, along with her ability to counter the Democrats with a woman on the presidential ticket, could boost her chances of being selected to serve as Trump's running mate. Of course, her low national profile could make her selection as VP a surprise to many. Overall, a prominent trend can be seen with each of Trump's most likely VP contenders, with his campaign appearing to favor loyalty and consistent conservatism in potential running mates. While Gingrich, Christie, and Sessions were all noted for their long-lasting support of the Trump campaign, Pence and Fallin have credentials and experience that could help the GOP ticket pull in conservative voters who found themselves estranged in the primaries. Now, on to the Democrats: 1. Tim Kaine - As a former Mayor, Chair of the DNC, Governor, and the current senior United States Senator from Virginia, Tim Kaine undoubtedly has the experience and governing skill worthy of a spot on the Democrats' presidential ballot come November. While his gravitas and political expertise easily make him one of Clinton's most stable choices for the Vice Presidency, he has little to offer in terms of demographic advantage or exciting the Democrats' progressive base. 2. Elizabeth Warren - Ever since being elected to the United States Senate in 2012, Elizabeth Warren has been one of the most prominent icons in the American left, with her supporters going so far as to create a "Draft Warren" movement in order to encourage her to run for the presidency in 2016. While their efforts were ultimately fruitless, Warren could still be eyeing the VP spot, with her strong progressive credentials and support from Sanders' wing of the party providing a possible boost for Clinton in the general election if she is ultimately chosen. Still, Warren has so far denied any interest in becoming Clinton's running mate, and the Clinton campaign may have reservations in introducing a double-female ticket at the DNC. 3. Julian Castro - With his current position as the United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development making him the youngest incumbent Cabinet Secretary in the Obama Administration, Castro could provide a much-needed source of energy for the Clinton campaign that so far seems to be lacking. Furthermore, his Mexican-American ancestry could help boost turnout for the Clinton campaign in Hispanic communities, especially in swing states like Florida, Colorado, Nevada, and even Arizona. Despite his potential, Clinton may end up opting for a more experienced running mate, and at just forty-one years of age, Castro isn't likely to provide what her campaign may be looking for. 4. Sherrod Brown - As a staunchly progressive Senator from Ohio, Sherrod Brown offers two things the Clinton campaign is looking for in a running mate - potential to draw reluctant Sanders primary voters to the Democratic ticket and a boost of support in a key swing state. However, Brown remains largely anonymous to the public, and his selection as Clinton's running mate would likely mean forfeiting a valuable Senate seat to the Republicans for the near future due to the appointment of his replacement by Republican Gov. John Kasich. 5. Cory Booker - Like Castro and Brown, Cory Booker has multiple things he could offer to the Democratic ticket, with a reputation as a strong campaigner and the potential to increase African-American turnout come November both serving as assets to his potential consideration for the VP spot. On the other hand, Booker's alleged close ties to Wall Street may prevent his nomination from increasing support for the Clinton ticket among disenfranchised Sanders supporters, which could result in his being passed over for another potential Vice Presidential candidate. While Trump's top picks for the Vice Presidential nod appear to mostly revolve around loyalty to his primary campaign and conservative governing reputation, Clinton seems to be much more focused on her general election strategy in the selection of her Vice Presidential nominee, with outreach to Sanders' primary voters and the potential to increase minority turnout both appearing to be key aspects her top choices. Of course, the field of potential candidates for each party's Vice Presidential nomination is much larger than those discussed here, and while the conventions are inching closer and closer by the day, we may not know of Trump and Clinton's decisions for a few more weeks. Until then, all we can do is wait and see. by Darren Janz Well, the final votes are (mostly) in, and we can now say with a sigh of relief that the 2016 presidential primary season is over. More than four months and one-hundred and thirteen primary contests from the Iowa caucuses in the beginning of February, both major party nominees have now been decided, and the general election season can begin to begin. Last night, primary results in five states (plus a caucus for the Democrats in North Dakota) confirmed that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump would be their respective parties' presidential nominees, with both the former Secretary of State and the billionaire businessman passing the delegate thresholds necessary to win the presidential nominations of the Democratic and Republican parties. While a substantial number of ballots in California are still being counted and the Democrats are waiting to hold District of Columbia primary on June 14, we now have a pretty good idea of what the final results on each side of the aisle will be. The following are the expected final primary maps for both parties, courtesy of Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections: Results of the 2016 Democratic Primaries ✓ Hillary Clinton (D-NY) - 28 States; 55% Popular Vote Bernie Sanders (D-VT) - 22 States; 43% Popular Vote Results of the 2016 Republican Primaries ✓ Donald Trump (R-NY) - 36 States; 45% Popular Vote Ted Cruz (R-TX) - 10 States; 25% Popular Vote John Kasich (R-OH) - 1 State; 14% Popular Vote Marco Rubio (R-FL) - 1 State; 11% Popular Vote *Note: Colorado and North Dakota did not hold Republican primary elections, choosing instead to allocate their delegates by convention. Electoral trends for both the Democrat and Republican primary electorates appear to be clear on the final maps, with both Clinton and Trump taking advantage of major demographics in their respective parties in order to maximize their voter bases.
On the Democratic side, Clinton's strong support from minority communities was key to many of her primary wins, with minority electorates in the southeast and southwest propelling her to victory in many of those regions' states - especially in the Deep South, where Clinton won every state with over 70% of the vote due to strong turnout from the African-American community. Clinton also performed well in diverse urban centers across the nation, with convincing margins in cities like Chicago, Columbus, Philidelphia, New York City, and Boston being key to success in a number of states in the Northeast and Midwest. Sanders, meanwhile, prospered predominantly in rural areas in New England and the Northwest, as well as in most of the upper Midwest, where disenfranchised blue-collar workers were largely predisposed to his message of economic reform. Meanwhile, Trump's most noticeable primary victories (apart from those that occurred after the withdrawal of his main primary opponents) were seen throughout his Northeastern base, with overwhelming victories in states like Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, and his home state of New York aiding him in building an increasingly dominant delegate lead throughout the primary season. Support for Cruz, on the other hand, was most prolific in many of the Western states, where Trump's style and proposals were less likely to resonate with voters. The only two states to be won by neither Trump nor Cruz were Minnesota and Ohio, with the moderate North Star State voting for Marco Rubio in an apparent rebuke against his more extreme opponents, and the more traditional Buckeye State voting for John Kasich, its favorite son. Overall, the 2016 presidential primary season was sure to be one for the books, with Democrats selecting the first female major-party presidential nominee in the United States and Republicans going against the grain to nominate an undeniably revolutionary candidate in what will undoubtedly go down as one of the greatest upsets in American political history. Next up, as the Democratic and Republican National Conventions near, we'll be taking a look at each party's potential vice presidential nominees, as well as potential general election strategies that will inevitably result in either Trump or Clinton taking the White House this November. |
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