by Darren Janz It's November 2nd, and only one week now remains until America will go to the polls in what could very well be one of the most influential elections in our nation's history. Before Election Day arrives, we've decided to go through and look at one final review of our predictions for how we think things will turn out next Tuesday. For President: Hillary Clinton (D-NY) - 359 Electoral Votes; 28 States + DC + NE-02 Donald Trump (R-NY) - 173 Electoral Votes; 21 States Evan McMullin (I-UT) - 6 Electoral Votes; 1 State As of November 2, Hillary Clinton remains ahead of Donald Trump in most national polling by about 5%, an increase of around one percentage point from Obama's nationwide margin of victory in 2012. Clinton's lead in the polls, along with favorable early voting signs and a significant ground game advantage over the Trump campaign, should be just enough for her to carry North Carolina, Arizona, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District along with each of the states Obama carried four years ago. Meanwhile, polls suggest that Independent candidate Evan McMullin is continuing to increase his chances of a potential upset in the state of Utah, where Trump's rhetoric and campaign style have not been popular with a significant portion of the Mormon population. While most still consider McMullin to be an underdog, his intense GOTV efforts in Utah throughout the final weeks of the campaign may very well pay off. While Trump could overperform on Election Day and expand upon the twenty-four states won by Mitt Romney in 2012 - especially in Midwestern states like Ohio and Iowa - it does appear that Clinton has a substantial advantage leading into the final stretch of the campaign. For Governor: Republicans - 31 States (no net change) Democrats - 18 States (no net change) Independents - 1 State (no net change) Throughout the course of the 2016 campaign, Political Resource has identified seven gubernatorial races throughout the United States as strongly competitive, with battles for the Governor's Mansions in Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Vermont, and West Virginia raging on as Election Day approaches. As of right now, it appears Democrats have slight advantages in the states of Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, and West Virginia, each of which voted for Mitt Romney four years ago but have seen their Democratic gubernatorial candidates run strong campaigns throughout the past year. Meanwhile, the GOP appears to be on track to pick up governorships in the states of New Hampshire and Vermont, both of which are currently being barnstormed by strong Republican candidates despite both voting for Barack Obama in 2012. The only other race that appears to be competitive - in Indiana - is unique in that there doesn't seem to be any sort of detectable advantage for either Republican nominee Eric Holcomb or Democratic nominee John Gregg, though we here at Political Resource are predicting it will end up going for Gregg by a coin flip. For Senate: Democrats - 50 Seats (+4) Republicans - 50 Seats (-4) The final predictions are in, and it appears we have a tie. Out of the twelve Senate seats in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin currently identified as competitive by Political Resource, exactly six appear to at least slightly favor each party, leaving both Democrats and Republicans with exactly fifty seats if everything goes as expected. Democrats seem favored to hold onto their seats in Colorado and Nevada and pick up four more in Illinois, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, giving them just enough to boost their current forty-six Senate seats to an even fifty. Meanwhile, Republicans - who have largely been on the defense this cycle - seem to hold at least slight advantages in the states of Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio, which should give them exactly fifty as well. A tie in the Senate means that the Vice President has power over who wins and who loses, meaning that the results of the presidential race (currently favored to be won by Hillary Clinton) could be the deciding factor over which party controls the Senate in the 115th United States Congress. For House: Republicans - 234 Seats (-13) Democrats - 201 Seats (+13) While Democrats appear favored to make substantial gains in the United States House of Representatives come November 8, the probability of regaining an absolute majority in the chamber remains highly unlikely. According to our final predictions, Democrats are poised to pick up fourteen seats in the House and lose one to the GOP, resulting in a net change of +13 - not nearly enough to reach the 218 seats necessary to take control. Ironically, if our predictions hold true, the partisan balance in the House for the 115th Congress will be 234-201, exactly what it was before the midterm elections in 2014. As always in politics, the unexpected can become the expected faster than can possibly be comprehended, so some of our predictions will be wrong and some of them will be right. The only thing that anyone can be sure of at this point is that November 8 will be a historic night in our nation's political history, and all we can do now is sit back and wait to see what happens. Should be fun.
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